alfa0422 [2014-07-03 13:32]:
DJIA jau 17000 kas toliau?

Scott Dorman Jul 11, 2014 03:29AM GMT

I will just respond to Jose's post up here, thanks for the kind message btw. So the question was pretty much whats the view now that the US didnt really sell off yesterday after Europe was so weak. The consensus view in the industry now is largely that the US markets are holding the global markets up. The European traders are worried about their pays this year,(we mostly get large bonuses to make up for average base salaries). So its all very well journalists writing that the stock market is the only place to invest clients money so as to get a return but they get their salaries irrespective of what happens whilst we have to worry about risk and returns.The concern is fast setting in that this may be a down year for equities.and the discussion is now turning to damage limitation.Stories like the banking issues in Portugal are just adding further pressure and uncertainty.Thats the story in Europe. There are a lot of traders in Europe who have no intention of being left holding the bag btw in the event of a correction after what happened in 2008 let me assure you of that.The guys I talk to who handle large accounts are not going to keep buying dips every time and I am not guessing at that,they are more concerned with keeping their jobs/clients and getting through the year and starting afresh next year without getting hurt. In the US I dont have as much daily insight anymore that I used to but it appears as though this feeling of self preservation hasnt set in yet. If the US sells of tonight and hits the lows of yesterday again then the markets could sell off over the next few weeks.I know of a few major funds in Europe returning cash to clients. So all in all I feel we are looking at a major 10 percent+ sell off anytime from now till September. Dont believe what you hear on TV about the market is just going to keep going up and that QE is the saviour. Those people you see who are 100 percent bullish HAVE plans to get out, they are professionals after all. Most of them are just saying what their bosses from work told them to say before going on air. Its all smoke and mirrors out there. Finally there is still 6 months to go in this year, but if you keep this post in the back of your mind while trading whatever direction you choose to do, I dont think its going to do you any harm whatsoever. Just ask yourself if you were a professional trader would you sacrifice your yearly performance bonus if a sell off occurs later in the year just because there is an off chance the ECB will engage in some strong QE or would you protect your salary and start afresh next year. If you would look after yourself first then dont think that an institutional trader with wife&kids to feed, mortgages, school fees etc is going to do anything different.

spektras [2014-07-13 15:10]:
Taigi.Mano,kaip prekybininko - praktiko supratimu

sliux [2014-07-13 20:38]:
Reikia nepamiršti, kad dabar vasara ir aktyvumas bei apyvartos sumažėję, tad to rimtesnio pakritimo dar gali tekt palaukt mėnesiuką kitą. Nebent pradėti skelbt Q2 rezultatai labai tragiški pasirodys, bet ir tai turbūt visi pakritimai dar bus bandomi atpirkinėti.

Dėl pasinaudojimo rimtesne korekcija, tai aišku kad sunku psichologiškai bus išlaukti didesnio pelno, bet šita "bėda" galioja ir į kitą pusę- taip pat sunku dabartinėje rinkoje ir buliams apčiuopiamo pelno išlaukti.

Žiūrint į tiesų kaip strėlė 2 metų SP500 grafiką galima spėti, kad rimtesnių bėdų buliai turės pakritus žemiau 1900