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Su gera akumuliacija ir tokiom naujienom long tiktai.

Tai kur tas kilimas Net su blogomis USD naujienomis nei svaras nei euras nekyla

Nuo parshiuko laiškelio svaras dar per 200 punktų pakilo iki 1,33685 per 1,5 val. Tai kad viskas čia gerai. O kad naujienos buvo geros doleriui paskelbtos 14:15 , tai eur su svaru nusirito žemyn. Aš pats pradėjau nervintis, kai po gerų JAV naujienų, eur dar 5 minutes nenorėjo kristi, bet po to matyt didieji dėdės persigalvojo ir nuleido žemyn viską.

Čia straipsnis su lentelėmis, kaip teoriškai reaguos svaras į palūkanų normos pasikeitimą rytoj:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-03/boe-sledgehammer-could-deliver-another-blow-to-the-pound

O tai yra koks nors reikalas jas dabar mazinti?

niekas jų ir nemažins

99 proc analitikų sako, kad mažins, kad išvengti recesijos. Yra reikalas mažinti.
Straipsnyje kur nuorodą idėjau, yra lentelė ir surašyti visi variantai ir kaip teoriškai reaguos.

O apie kokia recesija jie kalba jei BVP stabilus ir auga? Be to ir eksportas turetu dabar soktelti su labai pigiu svaru. Pala, o gal cia tie patys 99 proc analitiku kurie ir praeita karta kirpima prognozavo? Na zinoma, ir si karta jie turi 50 proc pataikymo tikimybe.

Rusų bajerį norėjau šiandien patikrinti, būtų pavykę, bet per ilgai galvojau ir pavėlavau į procesą.
O apie svarą kalba FT.COM analitikai. Įkeliu straipsnį, nes mokamas. Su nuorodą nepažiūrėsi.
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The BoE’s Brexit day: what investors expect
Significant policy response is expected at August policy meeting with QE and lower rates likely
The Bank of England’s rate setters on Thursday will offer their latest assessment on the outlook for the British economy. Coming seven weeks after the country’s vote for Brexit, monetary authorities are forecast to cut interest rates for the first time since 2009. Here is a breakdown of what is expected.

What’s expected?

Economists and interest rate futures markets both expect the Monetary Policy Committee to cut the bank’s benchmark rate a quarter point to 0.25 per cent. It will be the first move from the MPC since early 2009, when the UK economy was stuck in a deep recession following the financial crisis.

If the consensus is almost uniform on a rate cut, economists are far more divided on whether the MPC will do any more. Of the 44 surveyed by Bloomberg, only 20 say the BoE will unleash a fresh bond-buying programme designed to stimulate economy. There has also been speculation the Bank could buy corporate bonds or embark on some other form of credit easing.

Alongside any concrete steps, the BoE will also release its latest Inflation Report, which is expected to sharply downgrade the growth outlook for the UK while lifting the inflation projection thanks to the weaker pound.

In July, the MPC held off on easing until it had more data on how the economy is responding to Brexit. This time around “no rate cut would be a severe jolt”, says Marc Ostwald, a strategist at Admisi.
“Sterling has behaved in a reasonably sane manner over the last month or so,” says Simon Derrick, chief markets strategist at BNY Mellon. Although the pound fell sharply in the two weeks after Brexit, it has more recently settled into a range against the dollar and is roughly 10 per cent lower than before the June 23 vote.

However well telegraphed a rate cut has been, analysts say the pound is likely to be extremely sensitive to any further measures the MPC announces as well as the tone Mark Carney, the BoE governor, strikes at his press conference.

“Sterling is on a bumpy journey down to $1.25 and will be very sensitive to this meeting, which will take one of the most difficult decisions the Bank of England has ever had to make,” said David Stubbs, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
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Further weakness in the pound is more likely against the euro than the dollar, according to Mr Derrick, who forecasts sterling could weaken to the 87p to 90p range. (SVARBU)
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Gilt investors will also be paying close attention. Yields on UK government bonds marched lower before the referendum and the move accelerated following the vote for Brexit.

Ten-year gilt yields have bounced this week from their record low of 0.68 per cent that was hit on Friday. Ben Brettell, a senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, points out that “by talking about a rate cut the BoE has already achieved much of the intended effect, with bond yields falling across the board.”

John Wraith, a fixed-income strategist at UBS, cautions that given the global rally in government bonds, it is tricky to gauge whether the prospect of more quantitative easing is fully priced into gilts. If the MPC simply cuts rates that will be treated with a “shrug of the shoulders”, he says.

If QE is announced, investors will be eager to hear if officials set any parameters for the gilts they intend to buy. In 2009, the BoE set out to only buy gilts with a maturity of between five years and 25 years, but was ultimately forced to buy longer bonds as supply evaporated.
Another audience for the BoE will be investors in UK equities, where the FTSE 100 has been buoyed by the pound’s weakness. That has pushed the FTSE 100’s gain this year above 6 per cent. In dollar and euro performance terms, the blue-chip benchmark remains down 4 per cent and 7 per cent for the year respectively.

For equities, the more radical the easing measures are, the more positive the market response is likely to be. With the FTSE 100 moving up above its pre-referendum level, a further fall in the pound, even against such an uncertain political and economic backdrop, would help the index.

“We think the BoE should over-egg stimulus: do too much, do it early, and do everything,” said Gilles Moec, Europe economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “We look for a 25 basis point rate cut, £50bn in QE and ‘credit easing’ measures. But we would not be surprised if the BoE disappointed on QE. Loosening monetary policy at this stage may have little effect.”

Lentelė kaip svaras turi reaguoti rytoj GBP/USD:

Kazkodel nematau megstamo scenarijaus - rate cut, o kaina up. Na is pradziu virazas zemyn, bet galu gale up.

Rytoj pamatysime kiek tie analitikai verti, kiek apsirinka. Ši informacija buvo vieša liaudžiai, o realybėje bus truputi kitaip. Šiaip su svaru nežaidžiu, man su juo nesiseka. Bet panašu, kad Svaras nusitemps ir EUR paskui save.

Praeita karta tie patys analitikai pralaimejo beveik sausai. Dabar turi sansa rezultata islyginti. Cia as apie tai ar bus cut ar ne. O apie kainos virazus tai jau kitas spejimas.

Jei dabar cut nepadarys, tada bus kaip patarlėje: Trečias kartas nemeluoja
Bet rytoj susilaikysiu nuo žaidimo, bent jau stengsiuosi.

gudi kapu tyla

Paskutine h1 ismuse stopa mano, bet taip ir tikejaus. Rytoj svarbios naujienos, Tai siandien nedaug pripyle.

nezinau kaip kitiems, bet ant mazu saskaitu +400 proc per dvi savaites ant naftos ir GBP. Nu dar rytoj pazesim, nes NAFTA ir GBP juda nesvariai. pabandysim ant eurusd.

Si karta 99 proc anlitiku pataike su palukanom, bet nepataike su QE. Pataikymo rezultatas si karta 1:1. Kas liecia kurso pokyti tai maciau tik viena "rimta" prognoze. Viskas gerai su sita Gerchiko prognoze, isskyrus, kad suvis po "podzatije" ir "uzsifiksavimo" buvo ne i virsu, o i kojas. Su euru tas pat.
Dar idomus dalykas. Ten po situo video, komentruose, klausia Gerchiko "desines rankos" kur pradingo jo PAMM, po to kai prosadke 30 proc susigeneravo.





Nieko nesumaisiai? Visi kaip minimum po +4000 proc saskaitose pasidare (cia turiu minty tas sakaitas, kuriu niekm nerodo ir kuriu niekas nematys), o tu kazkaip skystai.

ne nesumaisiau. Po 4000 CIA reikia sverto 1:500, o ten net man nriseina su tokiu. Bet Keista vasara, o taip eina gerai. nors NAFTA liepa krenta paprastai, prisimenant 2008, o rinkimai USA taip pat arteja, turi buti geru rodiklius paradas dabar

Gerchikinis su savo urovniais. Akumuliacija sako eina Persiklojancios zvakes rodo kad eina tiesiog - fletas. Ir jis gali eit, savaite, menesi, kiek tik nori. Rinka is jo iseis tada kada iseis. Tiek ir tereikia zinot. Na dar reikia zinot kad rinka flete daro daug false breakoutu.

Akumuliacija buna kai labai daug privalgai cepelinu. Tada akumuliuojasi, akumuliuojasi, begi iki tualeto - ir ten jau distribucija.

Sakys - urovien pocti atrobotal.